April 30, 2006
He's right: I'm not that patient...
...I say we nuke the bastards.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is insane. He believes that the Hidden Imam, an Islamic holy figure who went into "great occultation" in the 9th century, is about to be restored to human history, will inaugurate a perfect state and perfect religion on earth, as a preface to the end of time. The advent of the Hidden Imam will be preceded by a catastrophic war which Islam will win.
This, dear reader, is why the raving lunatic wants the bomb. He's said that Bush is rare among US presidents in that he won't simply back down from conflict with Islam. Bully for him. But all Ahmadinejad has to do is wait Bush out. So he'll make a few conciliatory gestures this summer, just enough to stave off sanctions and prevent any action by the Security Council, which will give him enough time to wait for the next US president to try the "peace for our time" approach which worked so brilliantly in 1939.
I say we don't wait. I say we combine rods from god with tactical nuclear weapons and end this decisively.
The best way of solving this problem long term is to prove with terrible dedication that the cost of opposing the West is unbearable. Eye for eye isn't nearly enough. For every car bomb we need one corresponding glass pond. The retaliation needs to be so far out of proportion as to render opposition impossible. Then, and only then, shall there be peace.
There is, of course, another option. That would be to stop pretending not to be an imperial power and just annex the oil fields surrounding the Persian Gulf. I mean, if you're going to get swatted for stealing from the cookie jar, you should at least have the satisfaction of having done it. Drop a few divisions of armor and mechanized infantry, set the contractors to building a 20 foot concrete barrier, and create the 51st state. Dump all the locals across the border and seal the place off. Populate it with willing and well-paid US citizens, and start pumping oil like crazy. It's true that maintaining a border between territories is very difficult, but that's only if you allow people across. If you just close it completely it's really simple: cross this line and get shot.
Either way, I'm rapidly losing patience with the whole Iran thing. This is not a problem that can be resolved without massive cost. I'm interested in them paying as much of that cost as we can make them pay.
Ryan, you're consistent, I'll give you that. But also probably nuts, though my love for you is not contingent on whether or not I think you're sane (and vice versa, I'm sure).
Just as a minor, minor note: if we had these Rods from God, why nuke at all? We can strategically destroy pretty much anything we want, point and click style, with absolutely no risk to American lives and minimal financial cost.
Posted by: JosiahQ at May 1, 2006 02:55 PMsounds good to me. there is just the matter of a massive, and as far as i can tell, unavoidable Arab back-lash that would follow... what to do? i really feel like we're gonna get a dirty-bomb one way or the other...
Posted by: j.Cave at May 1, 2006 03:24 PMIf we have the Rods, why nuke? A good question that, and I've no particular love of nuclear weapons as such - messy and whatnot - so if the task can be accomplished conventionally, I'm cool with that. It would take operational testing to find whether orbital KE weapons and nuclear weapons are equally capable, and we have no data on that. But I do think something needs to be done.
Cave: I agree. They're gunning for us. We're gonna get it one way or the other unless we get them first.
Here's what I predict happens. Iran plays nice until December 2008, at which point they test their first nuke. Israel then, not being stupid, nukes Iran before Iran can nuke Israel. The Arab states go apeshit, but any attacks they launch wind up being a repeat of 1967 - assumming it isn't an identical replay of 1967, which would see Israel just preempting everybody.
What does the rest of the world do if Israel nukes Iran? Not much, I don't think. No one - even Russia and China - is all that thrilled about Iran having nukes, but no one wants to take the flak for doing something about it. Israel provides a convenient and nuclear-capable scapegoat.
What does the Arab world do about it? I'm not entirely convinced much would come of that either. But I do predict that the Syrian and Saudi governments, and quite possibly Egypt as well, would fall, as their governments would not immediately sign the suicide order that would be attacking Israel, and their populations would revolt. I don't really think Israel would have immediate objections here either.
Posted by: ryan at May 1, 2006 03:38 PMMy prediction is that Iran will be "peaceful" until January 20, 2009. Iran will announce, with much dancing and singing, that they have nuclear weapons able to reach western Europe and possibly the American east coast.
Iran's president is a wacko. What's unfortunate is that people in the US see people like me (a conservative) as a bigger threat to America than Iran.
We need to destroy Iran's capabilities first before they attack us or our allies.
Posted by: Nathan at May 1, 2006 05:03 PM